Juan Carlos Osorio is under fire. That is no secret. In fact whoever is the National Team manager is under fire the second they are hired. I really think that sometimes coaches are hired just so they can be fired.
Either way, despite the fan and media hysteria, the truth of the matter is Juan Carlos Osorio is actually doing a pretty good job. If the #1 objective of a National Team Manager is to qualify his team to the FIFA World Cup, then JCO has already gotten mission accomplished. He’ll have a big chance in two weeks to earn himself some good press for a half second if he’s able to officially secure Mexico’s World Cup berth.
At this exact time last cycle “Chepo” de la Torre had just: flamed out in the Group Stage of the 2013 Confederations Cup, bungled his Gold Cup with a Mexico B squad by losing to Panama, and was on his way to getting fired when he proceeded to lose to Honduras at the Azteca in September. Then after losing to the United States (dos a cero) under Luis Fernando Tena, Mexico then hired Victor Manuel Vucetich for the final two qualifiers which required Mexico needing a Raul Jimenez golazo and a Graham Zusi to bail the entire country out.
Instead, JCO has four games left in which he could play the Chivas u-19s in all of them and qualify El Tri to Russia. Somehow, this is such an atrocity that it requires vulgar shouting every time he walks by some clown wearing a green jersey. But I digress.
While there are some things Osorio does which irk me, (I think sometimes he rotates without a clear enough purpose, for instance. And his tendency to play people out of position can be annoying.) I happen to think he’s doing a good job. The players are still coming to his aide. And that’s vital.
Now that we have all that nonsense out of the way, assuming JCO isn’t fired or (perhaps rightfully) quits between now and FIFA World Cup 2018, let’s see if we can’t figure out what he’s thinking is his World Cup roster if he had to draw it up today. With Liga MX already kicking into high gear and two qualifiers forthcoming now seems as good a time as ever.
So, without further ado, let’s evaluate, how I think is how Juan Carlos Osorio is currently viewing the player pool in its entirety:
Now, once I was able to group all the names and see them in front of me, I was able to better find a way to a top 23. Here’s what I came up with as Juan Carlos Osorio’s top 23 as of this moment:
So, how did I come up with this? Well, I’ll tell you generally now before going player by player in a bit. Mexico, more so than the United States, was able to more clearly delineate the “first string” from the “second-string” because El Tri was entered into two international tournaments this summer: FIFA Confederation’s Cup and CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Osorio therefore was kind of forced to play his hand as to what was his “Top 23” and then his “Next 22” as the two rosters only shared one player-Luis Reyes of Atlas. He also put all 12 of his European contingent in the Confederation’s Cup squad while the Gold Cup squad, save for one member of MLS’ Houston Dynamo, was composed of Liga MX players. So it was a decent bit easier to get into his head as to who his best squad was.
The following was Mexico’s roster for the confederations cup:
From that 23, only five players were replaced. Rodolfo Cota, Rafael Marquez, Oswaldo Alanis, Luis Reyes, and Jurgen Damm were all removed from the 23 and in their placed the following five came in: Jose de Jesus Corona, Edson Alavarez, Jesus Gallardo, Jesus Dueñas, and Jose “Tecatito” Corona.
The next important thing was to determine what is Mr. Osorio’s preferred formation? And amazingly enough, despite all the formation changes, lineup changes, and position changes, we really did notice a top XI emerge in a preferred 4-3-3. The excellent Sir Tom Marshall of ESPN seemed to agree.
Here’s what it would look like:
Based off that, let’s go player by player and explain why I think JCO has them on his roster.
Forwards: Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez as a prospective starter for El Tri should come as no surprise to anyone. Not only is he one of the world’s (or at least North America’s) most popular players, but he has a really good goals to minutes ratio. (Don’t make me look it up. OK fine, here it is.) I don’t really need to defend his roster slot or his selection as a starter.
Raul Jimenez is the next player on the depth chart and he’s pretty much a lock too. He’s a big, strong, skilled player who will deploy his coach’s game plan sans complaint. He will even play as a right winger if need be. He’s also the only one who could step in and play as a lone striker if Chicharito were to go down.
After that we come to two players who are undoubtedly forwards, but are not really strikers either: Giovani Dos Santos of the LA Galaxy and Marco Fabian of Eintracht Frankfurt. Dos Santos while capable of playing as a winger or even an advanced midfielder in a pinch, is best deployed as a second striker making late runs into the box and the freedom to create. Fabian is very similar. Though I think he’s better suited to midfield work. I think both will make the team based off experience provided they maintain good form at club level. Dos Santos in particular has his detractors, especially since his move to MLS. But his ideal replacement candidates the young trio of Orbelin Pineda, Rodolfo Pizarro, and Erick Gutierrez did not step up in the Gold Cup and I think Gio played just fine in Russia.
Lastly, I placed Oribe Peralta in as a fifth forward or third striker. While he’s getting up there in age, (he’ll be 34 in January) he will be there for his intangibles if he stays healthy. The guy is a gamer and has a World Cup goal on his resume. ‘El Cepillo” (The Brush) as Peralta’s known reminds me a lot of Clint Dempsey in his effort and ability to come up clutch time and time again.
Wingers: If there’s one position where Mexico seems to have an almost endless amount of depth it is at winger. Not that all things are equal. But someone like Isaac Brizuela, the American-born right winger that was part of Mexico’s 2014 squad, is clearly outside the top 5 despite being a dangerous weapon for Guadalajara.
Jurgen Damm of Tigres UANL is a fine player and has been flirting with a European move this summer. Yet he only made Mexico’s Confederation’s Cup squad because of Jesus “Tecatito” Corona’s absence (which had a trickledown effect because the Gold Cup squad could’ve used him) for “personal reasons.”
Carlos Vela, despite being an inverted winger, is clearly at the top of the list. The Real Sociedad man is probably Mexico’s most talented player. He’s shown a lot more maturity the past couple seasons both with club and country and should be one of the top three or four names on the team sheet. (Although Osorio does seem to bench him for certain matchups for tactical reason. I think that’s one of the many things he does which irks Mexico fans.)
Next on the list is Tecatito. I can’t imagine he’s not starting at LW or LM when September 1st rolls around or even at the first game of next summer’s World Cup for that matter. The guy is one of those tricky attackers unafraid to take people on. Every team needs a guy like that.
Hirving Lozano I think also will be an Osorio regular, especially now that he’s moved to PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie. His speed makes him an ideal late game sub and for a guy with his skills he’s a solid finisher as well.
And I think the last winger spot, despite Jurgen Damm’s talent will go to his Tigres teammate Javier Aquino. Aquino has seemingly been around forever, but he’s still only 27. He is a great two-way winger who, despite the talent on Tigres can still play games where he looks like the team’s best player. I think a guy like that is indespensible to a roster. His defensive tracking also makes him important if Osorio ever wants to go back to three centerbacks. His ability to go endline-to-endline for 90 minutes makes him capable of being a wingback or a winger in a 3-4-3.
One other player worth mentioning is Elias Hernandez of Club Leon. He had a very solid summer and is capable of playing on either wing. But I just think there’s too many other players ahead of him on the depth chart.
Midfielders: So there are three players who cannot be dispensed with in the midfield: Captain Andres Guardado, Hector Herrera, and Jonathan Dos Santos. All of them are so talented that Juan Carlos Osorio felt the need to play Hector Herrera as a CDM in order to get them all on the field at once.
The one who played best of the three at the Confederation’s Cup was Jonathan. But to the dismay of many El Tri fans, the younger Dos Santos brother just joined his sibling at the LA Galaxy in MLS. It will be interesting if Osorio will maintain Jonathan in as high esteem after that.
Considering the depth at the position, I’m not sure JDS is really in any trouble of missing out on the roster. Losing his starting role? Maybe. But not his roster position.
One of biggest controversies that arose out of the Conderation’s Cup roster selection was the fact that Osorio didn’t bring a fourth central midfielder and more specifically, he didn’t bring a true #6. It was perplexing given his seeming affection for both Jesus Molina (a true CDM) and Jesus Dueñas (capable of playing multiple roles, but a more than solid experienced CDM). It angered people because once again, it led to Juan Carlos Osorio playing a key player, Hector Herrera, out of position.
I expect him to rectify this mistake in his next roster call up. He’ll do so, I think, by calling up either Jesus Dueñas or Jesus Molina. I went back and forth on this, but I think he’ll prefer Dueñas. While Osorio likes Molina’s height, positional discipline and has complimented Molina several times in the past-even going so far as to say he was ready for European football; I think he’ll prefer Duenas. I think it’s because he’s more versatile and he had a pretty good Gold Cup (or at least as good a Gold Cup as any Mexican player could have had).
Despite three of a possible four central midfield spots generally being spoken for there are some names to keep an eye on. The youthful trio of Pachuca’s Erick Gutierrez and Chivas’ Orbelin Pineda and Rodolfo Pizarro are all possibilities. At 22, 21, and 23 years old respectively, they show a lot of promise and all three are leaders on their clubs. But none of them stepped up as expected in the Gold Cup leaving many to think that they just won’t be ready for this cycle.
There are two names I think worth mentioning, even though I think they’re, as of now, very much on the outs: Carlos Pena of Rangers F.C. and Chivas’ Jose Juan Vazquez. Pena, 27, had been at times a semi-regular for Osorio but after a bad spell at Chivas, he fell out of favor. His physical style of play always appealed to Osorio. So, it will be interesting if Pena, now at the Scottish Premier League side Rangers will be able to catch Osorio’s eye. While the SPL may not be a top European league, Osorio may appreciate Pena’s gumption at going to face a challenge at a pressure cauldron like the Ibrox.
Fullbacks: After Miguel Layun, there aren’t a whole lot of good fullback options for El Tri right now. Layun, the FC Porto man, is capable of playing either fullback position equally well, but as a right-footed player he gives Mexico an extra little something as a ball-possessing LB.
In fact, the depth chart at both fullback spots is so lacking that Juan Carlos Osorio only brought two to Russia and on several occasions played CBs at both RB and LB. However I’m not sure if I expect him to rectify this with his next set of call-ups.
The only other regular or semi-regular fullback was Paul Aguilar. But he’s been out with a serious injury for almost a year now and there’s no telling how Osorio will receive the 31 year-old when he returns.
I think if anyone is going to provide depth at fullback on this roster it will be the 22 year-old Jesus Gallardo from UNAM. He was one of the few bright spots in the Gold Cup, but he’s not a full-time LB. He spends a lot of time at LM as well. Either way I think that versatility will serve him well and I think he’ll get the call-up next time. It will be left to be seen from there if he can maintain that roster slot for another eleven months.
One last option to keep an eye on is Guadalajara’s 20 year old LB Alejandro Mayorga. Osorio liked him so much he took him to the Confederation’s Cup just to get the kid exposed to the experience of the whole thing. But here’s the rub: Mayorga doesn’t have a single senior team appearance for his club. Granted he has the entirety of the Apertura and Clausura to earn a spot, but for a 20 year-old with no pro experience yet that’s a lot to ask.
I think any other depth at fullback will be provided by CBs.
Centerbacks: This position has been much criticized by the El Tri fans, but I think despite that the centerback corp. is fairly set. Hector Moreno is clearly the first name on the team sheet. And while Nestor Araujo and Diego Reyes battle for the right-footed CB spot, both are capable and both seem to have their place in the team secured.
Araujo is the bigger, more physical English-style centerback, while Diego Reyes, despite his height is the more skilled player; capable of playing RB or CDM. It seems as if Osorio as a part of his rotaciones likes each in different matchups.
Carlos Salcedo the former Real Salt Lake and current Chivas player was recently loaned to Marco Fabian’s Eintracht Frankfurt after being loaned to Fiorentina this past season. He has played far more RB for El Tri than CB despite it being his natural position. He’s not bad it
This brings us to another even younger centerback: Edson Alvarez. The 19 year old Club America product played the entire Gold Cup out of position at RB yet he seemed to have earned the most plaudits with his play and demeanor off the pitch. He’s big, at 6’3” and hadn’t played RB in any of his 21 Club America appearances. But I think because of the depth at centerback and the lack of it at RB, Alvarez’s best chance of making the World Cup squad is at RB.
The only thing I’m nervous about when it came to selecting this roster is that I didn’t pick a second left-footed centerback. Osorio on multiple occasions has stated his preference for having two left-footed centerbacks on the roster. But I didn’t pick one. Oswaldo Alanis after his great performance in Chivas de Guadalajara’s playoff run got to go to Russia, but didn’t cover himself in glory. But really, there’s no one else except maybe Yasser Corona who last got some run with El Tri at the 2015 Gold Cup-so it’s been a while. I think if Alanis does make it, having it be at the expense of Jesus Gallardo would make the most sense. Especially since six centerbacks wouldn’t be overkill knowing Osorio’s penchant for three CB formations.
And finally, we should discuss quickly the undead creature that is Rafael Marquez. The Mexican legend is almost 39 years-old and has 143 National Team appearances to his name. He was taken to the Confederation’s Cup but he didn’t play until the third place match mostly due to injuries. I can honestly say that I was having trouble imagining a scenario in which he’s doesn’t somehow squeak his way into the picture. He’d almost have to be arrested to be stopped.
Goalkeepers: I think the goalkeepers are all set. I can’t picture anyone besides Guillermo Ochoa, Alfredo Talavera, and Jose de Jesus Corona getting picked. While it would be nice to have a fourth keeper banging on the door to keep the competition sharp, it just hasn’t happened. Jonathan Orozco has been around forever and never really threatened. Rodolfo Cota seemed to be picked for the Confederations Cup more as filler so Corona could be the Gold Cup starter. Moises Munoz seems too old now, despite his steady presence. And Jesse Gonzalez of FC Dallas is, well American now. Raul Gudino at FC Porto still hasn’t played a game at senior level yet and I’m having trouble coming up with more names.
The one big development this summer has been that Guillermo Ochoa has finally seemed to cement his spot as the #1. He and Talavera had at times seemed to be rotated for tactical reasons with the bigger Talavera used against the US in Columbus and New Zealand in Russia. But in the knockout round Ochoa started both matches.
As if I haven’t already gone into a deep enough dive on the El Tri player pool, here’s my stab at Osorio’s seven injury replacements:
Rafael Marquez, CB (Club Atlas)
Oswaldo Alanis, CB (CD Guadalajara)
Jesus Molina, CDM (Monterrey)
Jurgen Damm (Tigres UANL)
Elias Hernandez (Club Leon)
Alan Pulido (CD Guadalajara)
And 1 of:
Rodolfo Pizarro, CM (CF Pachuca)
Orbelin Pineda, CM (CD Guadalajara)
Rodolfo Pizarro, CM (CD Guadalajara)
How Would I Do It?
Now, I know what you’re all asking: So, Jon how would YOU go about selecting a roster? Never fear, I’m about to tell you.
If I were the Mexican National Team Manager this would be my roster for the World Cup right now barring injuries (which have seemed to crop up in several cases).
My only would make three changes from what I anticipate Osorio will do. I would take Paul Aguilar if he’s healthy. I know he’s getting up there but his ability to play RB or RWB and join the attack is a great weapon. And at 31, he’s still got good pace (at least hopefully he will still have it despite the injury).
I would also take Jorge Torres-Nilo which I know would cause the El Tri faithful to unanimously emit a choral groan of “Ugh, him again.” type apathy. I know what his critics will say. He’s already got 45 caps and has never given a reason to get excited about him. But I like him for several reasons:
1) He’s experienced both at the National Team level and at club level. Ricardo “Tuca” Ferreti of Tigres is a good coach and he has a very talented squad at his disposal and they’ve played a lot of big games both domestically and internationally. And through it all Torres-Nilo has maintained his spot in the XI steadily throughout Tuca’s reign in Monterrey.
2) He’s big. At 5’11” Torres-Nilo is capable not just playing LB but LCB in a back three. So, in that sense he brings some versatility since there won’t be another left-footed CB besides Hector Moreno.
3) He’s a defense-first LB. Doesn’t hurt to have those kinds of players, for at the least, late game situations.
4) I want at the very least three true fullbacks. Because of Miguel Layun’s ability to play either side I don’t need four fullbacks. But I at least want three.
And my last change to my Osorio predictions is that I want Jose Juan Vazquez on the roster. JJ Vazquez has never once been called up by Juan Carlos Osorio despite being a key component of Miguel Herrera’s squads. Maybe I’m biased as a Chivas fan but I think it’s astounding that a player like Vazquez who was a major piece of Chivas’ Championship last season and who had three excellent starts at FIFA World Cup 2014 would be this far removed from the National Team. I think it may in large part be due to Vazquez’s lack of height, But if Osorio, who I know is a student of the game, looks he doesn’t have to try too hard to realize some of the greatest CDMs of all time were small.
I would add the following seven players as my reservists/injury replacements for now:
It’s like Jesus said: “If you love those who love you, what reward will you get? Do not even the tax collectors do that?” (Man, tax collectors get the worst publicity) Anyone can learn the USMNT roster. Takes a real fan to learn your rivals!
This entry will help you do that. Read this post and you’ll know all there is to know about El Tri heading into the huge game on October 10th at the Rose Bowl.
As a fan of both Mexico and the United States (Call me blasphemous if you want, I don’t care.) I am often astounded (and incredibly frustrated) how little USMNT fans know of the Mexico team, the program, and really Liga MX and Mexican football in general (I mean Mexico’s National Team is this nation’s most popular sports team and have really good players! How much US soccer fans ignore the amount of free soccer on TV from a Top 10 league I’ll never know. But this is another post altogether). As someone who grew up as a diehard Yankee fan you can be certain that we always knew everything there was to know about that Red Sox roster. If there was a hot prospect in AAA the Sox fans were giddy about, we knew. Same rules should apply here in a rivalry as heated as U.S.A./Mexico. It’s amazing how long conversations regarding the USMNT’s match-up against El Tri can go without their opponent and how and what they do not be mentioned.
Which is a shame. Because if this is supposed to be the great rivalry that fans proclaim, then don’t you want to know each and every one of those guys lining up against you? Can you have a serious discussion about formation when you don’t understand what your opponent will likely try to do?
But before we get to the individual players let’s try and get a snapshot of the team right now by asking and answering some basic questions.
1) What’s the current form of El Tri?
US Men’s National Team fans will never forget the way in which Mexico struggled to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. Nor will they ever allow El Tri’s fan base to forget the fact that they only played in Brazil via the miracle of San Zusi (Mexico really ought to build a holy shrine at the Estadio Rommel Fernandez). But the fact remains, Mexico played well at the World Cup, qualifying out of the group stage for the sixth consecutive World Cup (only Germany and Brazil have achieved that). They followed up the World Cup with some strong friendly performances versus the likes of Chile, Honduras, Panama, Ecuador, and even a road win versus the Dutch.
And with maybe a teeny tiny bit of luck, Mexico got into the Gold Cup Final. Which, you can’t take away from them, they did go on to win convincingly.
Their last test versus Argentina was great for many reasons. The best positive to take from the game is that they reverted back to the same formation and spine used in the World Cup, even though it would not normally be their new coaches’ preferred tactics.
2) What do we need to know about their new interim coach, Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti?
Anyone who watched any of ESPN’s World Cup 2014 coverage, was probably aware that they were managed by Miguel “El Piojo” Herrera. The former Club America boss instituted his preferred three centre-back system and gave the team its swagger back with his loose and fun coaching style. He, along with Jurgen Klinsmann, was one of only two World Cup coaches to be on Twitter.
But, his Copa America and Gold Cup teams struggled and the heavily cynical Mexican footballing press began to wear on him to the point where Herrera punched Christian Martinoli, a prominent commentator, at the Philadelphia airport.
(Side note: one thing I definitely don’t think USMNT fans understand is the current dynamic of the Mexico fan and how complicated it is. Mexicans in Mexico are, like their press, incredibly cynical. They believe that El Tri is a soft bunch of underachievers that are undermined by the corrupt FMF which is a reflection of the entire corrupt system of governance in Mexico. Whenever I ask a cousin or a Mexican friend how Mexico will do, they tell me Mexico is no good and almost always predict a bad loss. Mexican-Americans on the other hand, use El Tri to connect to their heritage and pump up the Mexican players, saying they are superior to American players so that they have something with which they can brag about and be proud of. You’ll never hear a Mexican-American predict a loss to the US, and even when they win, they’re confounded because on paper Mexico ought to be so much better.)
So, in the aftermath of the Philadelphia incident, out went Piojo and in came: Interim Manager-Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti-UANL Tigres, Mexican Liga MX: The man they call “Tuca” has been in Mexico so long people forget he’s Brazilian. He has been in Mexico continuously since he signed with Atlas of Guadalajara as a player in 1977! Even his Spanish accent is heavily northern Mexican.
There’s no doubt about him at this point in his career. The 61 year old is known for two things: good defensive tactics and being a stern disciplinarian. But nobody really knew what to expect of him in his voluntary 4-game stint as Mexico manager (I’m not sure anyone’s positive about what he’ll do even now). But after leading Tigres on a great run to the Copa Libertadores Final, he was the best domestic choice.
And, as his personality might have suggested, he shocked (and irritated) people right from the get-go by not selecting the Dos Santos brothers or Guillermo Ochoa for the September friendlies. But he also pleasantly surprised fans by naming all three to Mexico’s provisional roster. He also further pleased fans by returning Mexico to the 5-3-2 for the Argentina match.
Long a fan of the more traditional 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 he showed a lot of flexibility in allowing El Tri to take the field in a formation with which the players were familiar and also allowed for the best XI possible players on the pitch. I think he was smart (and humble enough) to realize that he had a big game with the United States with only one game left to tinker. And after another wild draw with Trinidad and Tobago he realized defensive stability came first.
3) So what tactics can USMNT fans anticipate?
I expect Ferretti, for the sake of continuity (hear that Jurgen, players like continuity) to line Mexico up in the 5-3-2 on October 10th, even though it ensures his two star wingers from Tigres will be forced to the bench. The wrinkle will be the health of former captain Rafa Marquez and current captain Andres Guardado. Without them, and moreso without Marquez, it will be very tempting to play a 4-4-2. Guardado is a 50/50 proposition at this point and Marquez looks to be out.
Miguel Herrera had long been a proponent of a three centre-back formation which heavily relies on wingbacks. He used it to much success with Club America, winning the title that tied them with Guadalajara for most titles in Mexican league history.
What Herrera liked best about this formation, it would seem, is that it gave Mexico extra defensive cover with three centre-backs and five defenders, yet allows for more of a 3-5-2 flank-oriented attack when Mexico is in possession. And what really makes this formation work is Mexico’s two wingbacks from Herrera’s days at Club America: Miguel Layun and Paul Aguilar.
The other element of Mexico’s success with the 5-3-2 is that they’ve found an undisputed killer threesome in the center of midfield. Captain Andres Guardado of PSV Eindhoven, FC Porto man Hector Herrera, and defensive midfielder Jose Juan Vazquez of Club Leon play at a very high level. Guardado and Herrera are incredibly skilled with the ball at their feet, aggressive in possession, and deft passers with a sense of defensive responsibility. And at ages 29, 26, and 25 they’ll likely be the threesome through 2018 qualification.
At forward, Mexico has a litany of options in their two-striker setup. They can go with any combination of Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, Carlos Vela, Raul Jimenez, Giovani Dos Santos, Oribe Peralta or Jose Manuel “Tecatito” Corona.
Goalkeeper is a position where El Tri will be solid if not spectacular. Guillermo Ochoa and Jose de Jesus Corona have long been Mexico’s 1 & 2 and are equals in talent to Brad Guzan. But Ochoa is currently a backup with his club and neither was named to the squad. But it looks like Club America’s reliable Moises Munoz is poised to start or possibly Alfredo Talavara, the starter when Mexico last won at the Rose Bowl.
4) Well, they sound pretty solid… so where is Mexico’s weakness?
Currently, Mexico’s centre-backs are perceived to be their weakness. Which has at times been particularly glaring being that they are likely to require three. At the World Cup they started Hector Moreno, Rafa Marquez, and Francisco “Maza” Rodriguez who were at the time 26, 35, and 32 respectively. And while Moreno is in his prime and has had a solid European career, Mexico has had trouble trying to find long-term replacements for Rafa and Maza going back to 2010.
Rafa Marquez, long-time villain of Team USA fans, returned to the starting XI for the Argentina friendly and looked excellent, organizing the defense and playing several of his patented long balls.
Maza has not had a great season and picked up a knock before the last pair of friendlies and wasn’t named to the squad. His replacement will likely be Diego Reyes, who has long been thought the heir apparent to Marquez. But the talented 22 year-old was forgotten in Porto last season and has been unable to progress as expected and is currently on loan at Real Sociedad.
5) So, how does the USA attack Mexico?
Well, Mexico should win possession against the United States. That’s a virtual lock. Their players are skilled with the ball at their feet and are super familiar with the system and their roles in it at this point.
At last summer’s World Cup, Mexico really only ever got into trouble when they were being attacked with speed cutting inside from the flanks (Neymar & Robben come to mind. Although who don’t they give problems too?). Even Croatia’s central midfield stacked with the likes of Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic, Danijel Prjancic, and Mateo Kovacic were completely dominated by Mexico’s midfield trio.
Mexico is far more vulnerable down the flanks. While Marquez can hardly run with any pace at all anymore, Reyes and Moreno have decent speed and should insulate Rafa’s big weakness. Moreno is also smart, strong, and he and Rafa know one another well. The key will be minimizing youthful mistakes from Reyes who with his thin frame is capable of being pushed around by bigger physical players. They won’t be caught out of position often. So what do you do? You hit them with speed, preferably on the flanks while Layun and Aguilar are caught up field.
Except there’s one problem: The USMNT has a lack of true wide midfielders. The absence of true wingers in the US pool has been evident for a while. Guys like Graham Zusi, Alejandro Bedoya, Gyasi Zardes, Fabian Johnson, Joe Corona, and DeAndre Yedlin are really not wide midfielders.
The USMNT has always given Mexico problems when they play very ugly American-style ball. What that means is: physical, scrappy, hard-nosed and organized play, relying on counter-attacks, some set pieces and good goalkeeping. When you try to out finesse Mexico (like they did during the 2011 Gold Cup Final) that’s when you lose.
If it where up to me, I’d play Besler and Gonzalez with Fabian Johnson and Geoff Cameron at fullback. Shore up the right side with Cameron, who’s big, strong, and used to being poised under siege. At midfield, I’d play Michael Bradley in front of a true defensive minded midfielder like Kyle Beckerman (I’d prefer someone a bit more athletic, like Maurice Edu, who did a fine job at the Azteca in the hexagonal, but I understand who Jurgen likes and doesn’t like. Maybe Danny Williams could be the new Beckerman.) Jermaine Jones in my view is a disaster waiting to happen, when on his inevitable runs forward will vacate space in front of defense with just enough room for a guy like Herrera, Vela, or Guardado to wreak havoc (see 2011 Gold Cup Final). That was probably Jones’ worst game ever in a USA shirt. Just watch his positioning in those highlights. It’s atrocious. I think playing a flat 4-4-2 with a Bradley/Jones CM pairing is pure doom for the U.S. They would both be totally overwhelmed and outnumbered in midfield.
Instead I would play a diamond in midfield which would give the USA a foursome with which to clog up the midfield, thus preventing Herrera and Guardado from dictating the game.
Finally up front, I’d prefer to have speed for the counter attack but in the absence of speed go with strength and clinical finishing: Dempsey and Altidore. You may only get one or two good chances; you want the guys who can make them count. Then in the end, if Mexico is becoming frustrated, you bring in Yedlin and/or Zardes to speed up the flank attack and see if you can outrun those tired wingbacks.
6) So, let’s get to the important part, who are the players we will likely see at the Rose Bowl wearing black and green come October and what do we need to know about them?
So finally, without further ado, here is a quick cheat sheet as to who exactly are likely to face off against the USMNT in Pasadena.
The presumption remains that Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti will stick with Miguel “Piojo” Herrera’s 5-3-2 for the sake of the team’s continuity like he did against Argentina. And I’d expect the starting XI to be: Chicharito & Vela at forward, Guardado and Herrera in front of Jose Juan Vazquez in central midfield, Paul Aguilar and Miguel Layun deployed at wingbacks, and a back three of Moreno, Reyes and a third center-back to be determined (likely Miguel Angel Herrera or Oswaldo Alanis) if Rafa Marquez is truly out. Moises Munoz or Alfredo Talavera is favored to be in goal over Guillermo Ochoa.
If due to Marquez’s injury, Ferretti decides to go with his preferred 4-4-2 (because Marquez as a libero is what really makes the 5-3-2 work), you can imagine that Javier Aquino will come in to play one of the two wing positions. But after that, the ideal XI becomes much more murky and that’s why I expect the 5-3-2 to be the call.
ST-Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez-Bayer Leverkusen, German Bundesliga: We’re all familiar the man nicknamed the Little Pea. The diminutive striker may not be the best player on Earth and most experts probably wouldn’t have them in their top 100 players in the world. Heck, for those that know Mexican football, he’s certainly not even Mexico’s best player. But when it comes to fame and popularity, there are fewer footballers with quite so many fans. In many respects he may be the most famous footballer in two different countries: Mexico and the United States.
And while his talent to popularity ratio brings out the haters, it’s easy to forget that he’s actually pretty damn good. He will always be an elite level clinical finisheras we saw in last season’s UEFA Champions League quarterfinal. It’s just a matter of having a coach who believes in him and good service. He still has one of the best goal-to-minute ratios in Europe.
And while some deride him as simply a poacher, for me, he’s most dangerous when playing a team that prefers playing a high defensive line. Yes he’s known for his sense of space and timing, but for me, his ability to score goals like the one he scored versus France in South Africa that excite me. He missed one of those versus Argentina, but if he gets in rhythm between now and October with Leverkusen then Chicharito may finally nab that goal vs. the United States which he has yet to tally.
I think one of the reasons he’s failed to score on the Yanks is twofold: 1) while he’s shifty and a great leaper, he’s too short to score poaching goals against the USMNT. 2) USA almost never plays a high defensive line. It will be interesting to see if US plays it tight and to see if he will get frustrated or if he finally breaks through versus the Yanks.
FW-Carlos Vela-Real Sociedad, Spain’s La Liga: Along with Giovani Dos Santos, the mercurial Vela was supposed to headline Mexico’s “Golden Generation” after winning the Golden Ball at the 2005 U-17 World Cup as a 15 year-old. And, like Dos Santos, after signing with a Premier League Team (Arsenal) and subsequently wandering the European wilderness on loan, Vela finally become an elite player upon settling at Basque club Real Sociedad in 2012, helping the team advance to the Champions League in 2014.
But the real story with Vela was his long three-year absence from El Tri. Details of the beef are murky. But it stemmed from a six-month suspension Vela received from the Mexican Football Federation for a party he threw in Mexico after a friendly. That was late 2010. But after one more appearance with El Tri in early 2011, Vela began refusing all-call ups to play for Mexico until only this past November for a pair of friendlies against the Netherlands and Belarus. And when he started beside Chicharito in that game, Mexico fans saw what they had been waiting three long years to see.
What exactly does Carlos Vela bring to El Tri? Pure dynamism and elite talent. He’s the one guy in a Mexico shirt (perhaps Gio too, to a certain extent) who can truly make something out of nothing. He’s the guy Miguel Herrera said is Mexico’s best footballer. On talent alone, he certainly is.
He’s a drifter. Vela has never quite been the ideal inverted right winger and he’s never quite been a striker and he’s never quite been a No. 10, but he can be all of those things within a single game. He is a good partner for Chicharito because he won’t occupy his space. Whereas Hernandez wants to be on a centerback’s shoulder, Vela wants to pick up the ball between the midfielders and the defenders or between a centerback and a fullback where he is capable of shooting from distance, attacking the defense, or passing. This gives center-backs the dilemma of having to come to him, which would leave Hernandez able to break free behind.
ST-Raul Jimenez-Benfica, Primeira Liga: While I still think it would be hard not to pick a Vela/Hernandez forward-line, do not be surprised if Ferretti elects to replace Vela with Jimenez after his excellent performance against Argentina. Jimenez, is tall, physical, technical (watch this epic goal which saved Mexico’s bacon at the Azteca) and is Mexico’s best weapon at matching up in the aerial game. Growing up at Club America where the team always possessed a South American star striker, Jimenez learned quickly how to complement whoever he needed to as a second striker. He is definitely capable of playing a role and doing dirty work if asked to do so.
It’s going to be a hard decision for Ferretti to choose two of Vela/ Hernandez/Jimenez but Raul may be the best strategic matchup for El Tri in countering the US’s size and physicality.
ST/MF-Jesus Manuel “Tecatito” Corona-FC Porto, Primeira Liga: The twenty-two year old winger/striker hybrid is the player Mexico fans are most excited about right now. His coming out party on the international level was the Gold Cup Final where he earned his start of the tournament and recorded the winning goal. He is simply fearless. He takes on players, almost to a fault, always convinced he can beat his man. I am sure, that if he’s on the ball out wide and facing a converted center-back playing fullback, he’s going at him. Probably each and every time. He’s not a great passer yet, so crossing is not where he’ll hurt the USA. It’s his ability to head to the end line, turn in and create chaos in the box that’s his specialty.
He would’ve been a part of the recent friendlies but he stayed in Portugal to assimilate with his new team after just being transferred. It was a good idea as he debuted with a brace. I would expect Tecatito almost certainly will be used as a substitute during the US match.
FW-Giovani Dos Santos-LA Galaxy, Major League Soccer: The son of a Brazilian footballer, the Mexican-born speedster has always been a player with whom a ton was expected. Finally, during an excellent 2013-2014 season with Villarreal, Dos Santos seemed to finally be living up to his potential. In that season he scored 11 goals and notched 8 assists as he led the newly promoted Villarreal to sixth place. Unfortunately last season saw him miss lots of time due to injury and his coach lost faith in him, leading the way to (GASP!) a transfer to MLS.
Dos Santos always has been a feast or famine player. At his best he’s roaming the pitch for the best positions to receive the ball and attacks defenders 1-on-1 ruthlessly.At his worst, he drifts side-to-side disinterested in defense and disengaged. Luckily for El Tri, the former has become more and more the norm. Luckily for the USA… it’s very likely that he won’t see the field after Ferretti left him out of the September friendlies, which means he won’t be able to do this.
Wingers-Jurgen Damm*/Javier Aquino-UANL Tigres, Liga MX: As two of Tuca’s regular starting XI in Liga MX everyone assumes both wingers would slide right into El Tri’s starting XI, however as Tuca has reverted back to Herrera’s 5-3-2 formation for the sake of the squad, it is likely Damm and Aquino who will suffer as there’s no role for traditional wingers.
There is nothing particularly nuanced about their games. They favor staying wide and like to use their speed to blow by people. And both are confident enough to take on defenders 1v1, Damm with youthful ignorance and Aquino with what Bill Simmons would call “irrational confidence.” (By the way the USMNT could use a couple irrational confidence guys. Dempsey and Jones seem to be the only ones with swag in the pool. Michael Bradley’s quiet confidence does not equate.)
And Guardado has made a fine successor. Last year Guardado settled in nicely at PSV Eindhoven on loan after several years struggling out of position at Valencia. And for the first time since playing for Deportivo La Coruna in the Spanish second division, he’s a fixture for his club. He even earned Player of the Year honors from one major Dutch newspaper. In fact, this past March, the PSV fans, thankful for Guardado’s role in leading PSV to their first title in six years, put together a touching pre-game display for Guardado. They displayed a tifo thanking the Mexican and urging PSV and his parent club Valencia to make the loan move permanent.
What he provides in midfield is steadiness and technical ability. He plays well both in attack and in defense and will be a key in helping Mexico dominate possession. Funny enough prior to the World Cup, many Mexico fans wondered if he’d even make the roster. But a serious injury to Club Leon’s Luis Montes gave Guardado new life and his club and country form has been superb ever since.
Clearly Mexico’s best player in the Gold Cup, what he does excellently is dictate play. He runs so hard at the ball, winning it back (along with Herrera and Vazquez who also both run relentlessly) that he’s able to spur these mini-counterattacks from midfield (much like he did for PSV’s winning goal against Manchester United). If the US midfield has one those days where their first touch just isn’t good, it could be a long day for them. Mexico’s trio will scoop up those long touches and the ball will be heading toward Hernandez before anyone knows what’s going on. That’s why, if I’m a Mexico fan I want Jermaine Jones in the starting XI. He’s going to make forays forward, some of them wildly, and if and when the ball is lost he’s going to give his own backline more headaches than they can deal with. Herrera, Vela, or Jimenez or Guardado are going to charge into that vacated area and create scoring chances.
MF-Hector Herrera-FC Porto, Primeira Liga: Despite being overshadowed by the likes of Chicharito, Giovani Dos Santos and others, Herrera is possibly Mexico’s best footballer at the moment. The twenty-five year-old has quietly become the undisputed banner carrier for Mexicans abroad in Europe. Starting regularly as a central midfielder, Herrera was the only CONCACAF outfield player playing in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League last season and was a key part of FC Porto’s run to the quarterfinals.
Herrera is a dangerous player because he has the exact same position and role with Mexico as he does at Porto. He plays on the right side of a narrow three-man midfield ahead of the CDM and looks to create for the forward line, and more increasingly of late, look for his own long range shots (he scored this great golazo in the Champions League last season). Herrera is tall, strong, technically gifted and will not be intimidated by the USA’s physicality after playing against Europe’s elite. He was incredibly underutilized by Mexico during their disastrous Hexagonal campaign much to the chagrin of Mexico fans.
CDM-Jose Juan “Gallito” Vazquez-Club Leon, Liga MX: “Gallito” was the break-out star of the Mexican team during the World Cup last summer. Vazquez, who had not been on the National team radar until Miguel Herrera took over and noticed he may have been the lynchpin to a Club Leon midfield that won back-to-back Liga MX titles. While Luis Montes and Carlos Pena won the plaudits playing roles similar to that of Guardado and Herrera, Herrera saw that it was Vazquez’s bulldog, and dare I say, Beckerman-esque defensive nature which allowed them to thrive.
Even then, however, it seemed Herrera was going to start his Club America midfielder Juan Carlos Medina in the CDM role in Brazil. But, fate intervened, Medina was hurt in practice and Vazquez was handed the reigns and thrived, playing all three group games in Brazil. In fact, his injury leading up to the Gold Cup prevented him from being a factor at all in that tournament and I think his absence was a huge loss for El Tri. Granted, Jonathan Dos Santos, who replaced him, is far more talented, but is not as defensive minded. Ferretti’s desire to start Vazquez may be the reason Jonathan Dos Santos is unlikely to start.
Yes Gallito can be eager to test the goalkeeper from distance, but generally Vazquez’s game is simple. He guards the defense, runs arounds (the downside: sometimes, he can run himself out of games against well drilled and skilled midfields), wins balls and looks for Guardado and Herrera who will do the creative passing. His battle with a forward deployed Bradley could be the key to the whole game.
CM-Jonathan Dos Santos-Villarreal, Spain’s La Liga: I think Jurgen Klinsmann would’ve appreciated Jonathan Dos Santos. The younger brother of Gio, Jonathan spent five seasons fighting, scraping, clawing, to stay at FC Barcelona despite the fact many urged him to move on and earn regular minutes. It wasn’t until his brother’s team came calling that he finally agreed to concede that he wasn’t going to reach the first team in Catalonia.
At Villareal last season he thrived, even as Gio struggled with injuries. Deployed all over the pitch, the self-proclaimed defensive midfielder is as talented a player as Mexico has. Think of him as Michael Bradley with skillz (yes, skills with a ‘Z’). His game is similar to Guardado’s in that he uses his energy to win balls and his skill to launch attacks. The best example of this was the Gold Cup Final against Jamaica. I was there in person and the way in which he kept attacking the ball and then properly moving the ball forward was the one thing I will always remember about that game.
LWB-Miguel Layun-FC Porto, Primeira Liga (on loan from Watford, Premier League): Not always the most popular player in the eyes of Mexico fans, the former Club America captain definitely has his skill set. Naturally right-footed, Layun can play several other positions as well and tends to cut inside in the final third where he is capable of ripping off golazos from 20-25 yards. He can truly be an extra midfielder in possession.
Watch hereas he cuts inside to the right foot. He won’t be a dangerous crosser, though he can do it adequately with his left and showed versus Argentina he can counter with the best of them. But it won’t be a caught up-field fullback that will scare you with him. It’s a caught up-field right-sided central midfielder who will encourage him to sneak inside and forward and help Mexico control possession in the USA’s defensive third.
RWB-Paul Aguilar-Club America, Liga MX: I’ve already stated just how much Paul Aguilar and Miguel Layun make the 5-3-2 work. Mexico needs both of them on top of their game to succeed in this tournament. If for some reason Ferretti elects to go with only 2 centerbacks, I’d expect Aguilar to be replaced by Tigres’ Israel Jimenez, a more defensive minded fullback.
FB-Israel Jimenez & Jose Torres-Nilo-UANL Tigres, Liga MX: The right back, who made his name by starting for the Mexico team which won the Olympics hasn’t really reached his potential. But he plays his club football for Tigres which means he’s already a reliable soldier for interim coach Tuca Ferretti. While he got the start in Mexico’s 2-2 draw with Argentina, he’s not ideally suited to a 5-3-2 if that is the formation. While he’s a capable fullback who just recently played in the Copa Libertadores Final, he’s just not a strong enough offensive player for that role. At least that’s my opinion, it may not be Ferretti’s however who clearly trusts him. But if the USA goes with a narrow diamond midfield, then Mexico will lose a lot by not having a right sided marauder to take advantage.
Jose Torres-Nilo lost his position as Mexico’s LB to Layun during the 2014 World Cup Qualifying cycle, but he’s always hung around as an option. Like Jimenez, if Tuca chooses a 4-4-2, then the possibility of Torres-Nilo playing goes way up as he’s a more natural defensive player.
CB-Rafa Marquez-Hellas Verona, Italian Serie A: My goodness. What can I say about longtime USMNT villain Rafa Marquez that hasn’t already been said through gritted teeth? Although Marquez’s resume is excellent (2x UEFA Champions League winner, 2x Liga MX champion, only man to captain a team at four different World Cups), he really has never played great against the United States. Their physicality frustrates him and he’s prone to cards as it is. But this 5-3-2 formation has brought him new life. Flanked by a center back on either side, Marquez is able to play an almost Pirlo-esque role while using his experience to direct the defense. He has become the ultimate “libero” in his old age.
His long range passing is such a weapon and it diversifies Mexico’s attack. While the rest of the team can play the possession game, he can start counter attacks incredibly quickly with his direct play. It’s something that El Tri just can’t duplicate or replicate and why, like a zombie apocalypse, he just keeps coming.
As an anecdote I remember being incredibly nervous prior to the final group stage game against Croatia last summer. Mexico only needed a draw and Croatia a win, but armed with Modric, Racatic, and Mandzukic, the Croats were certainly dangerous. Then after a few minutes, I realized that no one on Croatia was pressing Marquez when he received the ball. It was right then I knew Mexico was going to win. I don’t know if it will be Bradley or Altidore’s job to chase Marquez off the ball, but if they don’t, expect to see 40-60 yard pinpoint passes sprayed all across the field, leaving the USA scrambling to recover.
CB-Hector Moreno-PSV Eindhoven, Dutch Eredivise: Very quietly Moreno has been Mexico’s steadiest player abroad for several years. Starting with his time at AZ Alkmaar, and continuing through to his years at Espanyol, Moreno has been one of the first names on the team sheet since 2010 regardless of who is managing Mexico.
Prior to the World Cup, it was expected that the 27 year old would move on to a bigger club, possibly even one at a Champions League level. And while his unfortunate leg break in the Round of 16 derailed that, Spurs, Arsenal, and Juventus’ names resurfaced in summer transfer rumors for the centre-back… until he required foot surgery from an injury against Costa Rica while tuning up for the Gold Cup. But PSV, eager to show their stuff in Champions League bought him solely for that competition. If he plays well in the group stage, and I suspect he will, expect top 4 league interest in him once again.
There’s a lot to like about Hector Moreno’s game. A left-footed player, he was occasionally deployed at left-back in his younger days but is now truly a centerback. And while not the tallest (6’0”) and not the fastest, his soccer brain often places him in the right positions where neither is a detriment to him. I’d argue that his lack of flash is his best attribute. He is Mr. Reliable. I can’t even recall a time where he has made big gaffe, but he can certainly get his head to a ball on a corner. This is really the only compilation video of him I could find.
If there is one knock on him however is that he hasn’t seem capable of taking charge of the back line in Marquez’s absence. However that shouldn’t be an issue October 10, provided the 36 year old can stay glued together over the next month.
CB-Diego Reyes-Real Sociedad, Spain’s La Liga (on loan from FC Porto, Primeira Liga): Reyes, the 22 year-old FC Porto man will likely be a starter in a three-man backline, unless perhaps Tuca favors Tigres’ savvy veteran Arturo Rivas. Much has been expected of Diego Reyes in Mexico and he has long been thought the heir apparent to Marquez. At 18, he started for the Mexico U-23 squad which won Olympic Gold and was a star at Club America before earning the big overseas attention.
However his time at Porto was not good. While Hector Herrera has thrived in Portugal, Reyes has floundered. But Mexico for almost five years now has expected him to be the heir apparent to Marquez. He’s tall (6’3”), speedy, and skilled enough to play defensive midfield or even right back as well. Marquez was always able to give Mexico a dangerous counter-attack with his long ball accuracy and Reyes seems to be the only center-back in the pool with the capability of someday providing Mexico with that kind of danger from the back.
He’s looked great so far at Real Sociedad and played well versus Argentina. There are not a lot of highlights to show off since he left Mexico. This game versus Academia in the Portuguese Cup was his one bit of extended action last year and as you can see he’s shown flashes. He even earned a Champions League quarterfinal start at RB because of this performance, but he was embarrassingly pulled before halftime as Bayern Munich exploded with multiple goals in the first half. But in the end, I don’t think he’s any less of a prospect than John Brooks is.
GK-Moises Munoz-Club America, Liga MX: By anyone’s measure Munoz is at best Mexico’s fourth best goalkeeper behind Malaga’s Guillermo Ochoa, Jesus Corona of Cruz Azul, and Pachuca’s Alfredo Talavera. But the steady and reliable 35 year old likely earned the start versus the USA with his excellent showing versus Argentina in Dallas (though he did have the big error that allowed Argentina to get back in the game). As the elder statesman of Mexico’s goalkeeper pool and as the man who has guarded the net for Mexico’s biggest club over the last few seasons he’s exactly the kind of player a coach would like for a one game playoff. He’s going to bring leadership and he’s going to stay within the gameplan.
GK-Alfredo Talavera-Deportivo Toluca, Liga MX: When Mexico last won at the Rose Bowl in 2011 in the Gold Cup Final versus the USMNT, Talavera was in goal. That was really the last time he was in net for a meaningful game for El Tri. Talavera seems to suffer from just not being able to capitalize on his opportunities in the Mexico kit, such as the September friendly against Trinidad and Tobago. Which is unfortunate because he’s consistently been one of Liga MX’s top goalkeepers for years now. But I suspect if he’s in goal for Mexico on October 10, no one will be too concerned.
GK-Guillermo Ochoa*-Malaga, Spain’s La Liga: Although incredibly popular in Mexico, many fans of El Tri were surprised Ochoa got the start over Jesus Corona at the World Cup. In fact, he was about to have the unfortunate distinction of heading to his third straight World Cup without playing. Luckily for Ochoa, Jose de Jesus Corona picked up a knock during the warm up matches and Ochoa was able to wrestle the job away.
And despite making a big name for himself last summer and rumors connecting him to several big clubs, he eventually moved on a free transfer to Malaga. However, the choice of going to Malaga has been nothing short of disaster (he just reached 500 days without a La Liga start!) as Ochoa was never able to wrestle the starting job away from incumbent Carlos Kameni.
CB-Miguel Herrera*-Pachuca, Liga MX & Oswaldo Alanis*-Guadalajara, Liga MX: Well, these two players have a grand total of 10 caps combined. And yet one of them could quite possibly start in perhaps Mexico’s biggest game of the year. The big difference between them is that one is left-footed and one is right-footed, which may be the deciding factor. While Hector Moreno is the more accomplished center-back by far over Diego Reyes, it is Reyes who is more familiar with the center role in the back three. Therefore don’t be surprised if Herrera gets the call to man the right center-back position. He is also more familiar with a back three. Mexico fans will definitely be uneasy about either of these guys despite the fact that they both performed well together in a November 2014 friendly in Amsterdam versus the Dutch. Moreso than seeing either of them in the starting XI, seeing the 4-4-2 may cause more angst among fans.
(* neither made final 23 man roster)
OK, well after all that, it’s time to make a prediction. So, will El Tri win it all?
I believe they will. I anticipate Mexico will control the tempo in midfield and their defense will play just well enough against the counter attack to get them through. I say final score: 2-1 Mexico.